Coming at you now and every Friday from here on is a new thing we’re calling The Wrong Guess where I’ll do my best to predict what the weekend totals for the box office.
First we’re going to take a look at the top five from last week and I may have been the only one unsurprised The Hangover performed like it did. Granted I didn’t think it would churn out $45M but I didn’t doubt it could take the weekend from Disney and Pixar. Seeing as how dismal the year has been to Warners, they’re probably jumping for joy that they finally have a surprise hit that’s…R-RATED! Irony? You bet, and I bet Warners drops their “no more R-rated tentpole films” policy now. Up is doing just about as everyone expected it would and right now is outperforming everyone’s favorite yellow robot. Even with the competition it faces this weekend, there’s little question The Dynamic Duo (Pixar and Disney) can lose and it will continue to perform strong. The biggest disappointment of last week was Land of the Lost that only managed a meager $18.8M which was well below expectations. Bottom line was the film didn’t have a wide appeal and word of mouth wasn’t particularly strong, and it shouldn’t have been given the trailers. Getting back to family films, if anything is going to be hurt by Eddie Murphy it’ll be Night at the Museum 2 as it maybe has one more week left in it’s tank before it topples out. That, and families that don’t go see Up for the eightieth time may want something fresh. By far the biggest earner of the year (or will be) is Star Trek which still continue to perform strong a month after release. $300M is possible at this point but likely it’ll top out at $275M if it doesn’t hit three.
How will the new releases fair? The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 will be the one that performs strongest, but the top spot will be a battle with the four boys in Vegas. Word of mouth is pretty decent for Tony Scott’s opus and it certainly has gained the interest of all the adult males looking to be entertained with it’s flashy trailers and Denzel Washington. The Hangover is a machine right now though, and the great word of mouth is going to propel it again for this week. All things considered, it could win again next week but that’s for later. Imagine That isn’t going to fair strongly when you consider how strongly Up is doing and how poorly the last few Eddie Murphy films were received. It’s also unwise to doubt Night at the Museum 2 as everyone did the weekend of release. If Imagine That manages anything above $20M, consider it a minor surprise.
Personally, if I had my way, everyone would go see Moon and the world would be a better place.
PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 12-14, 2009:
1. The Hangover – $28 Million
2. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 – $26 Million
3. Up – $20 Million
4. Imagine That – $12 Million
5. Star Trek – $10 Million
That’s it for next week. Enjoy!
Looks like you were wrong bro – 8 mill for Pelham, that is crazy! Someone lost their job on this one.