The Wrong Guess: Box Office Predictions For 6/22/2009

Greaaat day in the morning was I off or what last week? I figured the quartet in Vegas would still pound strong but bland do-gooder Ben Stiller is proving to be a bigger juggernaut than originally thought. As far as Eddie Murphy is concerned, he better start seriously moving the ball on Beverly Hills Cop IV as that looks to be the only thing that’ll revive him now. Tony Scott’s latest fiasco was a different story and probably is underperforming. No matter, it’s not like Scott won’t find work somewhere, same goes for Denzel and Travolta. If I’d my own way, everyone would have seen Moon and the world would have been a better place.

This week is the calm before the storm, and that storm is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen which will undoubtedly destroy everything in it’s path. Getting back to the films of the week, the headliner is some Sandra Bullock film called The Proposal. It is what it is, and certainly you could do worse but it’s going to play to it’s audience well enough. It faces competition (if any) from Jack Black and Michael Cera’s new romp Year One which should play well with anyone eight and under. Sadly, it’s not marketed toward them and word of mouth is terrible so this is going to do less than Land of the Lost numbers. The Proposal is surprisingly receiving decent-to-good reviews and since it’s the only date movie out right now, should be a strong opening all things considered.

Yet, I still see The Hangover winning out. It hasn’t dropped off too terribly from last week and it’s sill on everyone’s lips as the comedy to beat, even if most couples will head into The Proposal. Up‘s drop shouldn’t be anything major and will probably round up the last of it’s “big bucks”. Pelham 1 2 3 was overshadowed by Vegas and could possibly have a bigger drop than expected. Night at the Museum 2 MIGHT have this week left in it but with Up playing so well it should finally peter out. Land of the Lost? Yeah, at this point it’s a miracle that film was still in the top five. It’s going to fall, and hard this week. Bring on Optimus!

Predictions below:

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 19-21, 2009

1. The Hangover $29M
2. The Proposal $28M
3. Up $21M
4. Year One $17M
5. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 $14M

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